Part One was full of fairly straightforward picks on who
should take home each trophy, but Part Two is where Oscar picks are broken. With
three short film categories that are the equivalent of throwing a dart at a two
inch target while blindfolded, and the feature categories that are less up in
the air but still could get crazy. Without further ado, the predictions for the
shorts and features:
Animated Short
Favorite: Dear Basketball
Potential Spoiler: Literally
Any of the Other Nominees
When I said that the short film categories could make or
break your Oscar Picks in your office pool, I wasn’t kidding. While something
like Dear Basketball may be receiving
more picks than the other four, there is no guarantee that come March 5th
Kobe Bryant will be an Oscar winner. And while Dear Basketball is a great little short for anyone who has loved a
sport and left it, I’d hardly put it at the top of my personal list. From a
sheer animation standpoint, Garden Party is
kind of ridiculously well made, but from a story and animation angle, Lou has to take the cake. And let’s be
honest, it’s hard to bet against Pixar.
Pick: Lou
Documentary Short
Favorite: Heaven
Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Potential Spoiler: Different
Category, Same Result
This category is always interesting as it seems to be
incredibly relevant subject matters every year. Whether this is a deliberate
choice by the Academy is unknown, but it does provide for extremely captivating
short films if nothing else. Every nominee is interesting in its own way but
only two really stood out as potential winners, Traffic Stop and Heroin(e).
Both feature incredibly timely material and tell their stories in effective
ways, but at the end of the day I think Heroin(e),
the story of Huntington, West Virginia and the overwhelming opioid crisis
occurring there, will take home the award.
Prediction: Heroin(e)
Live Action Short
Favorite: DeKalb Elementary
Potential Spoiler:
It’s Really Like a Broken Record Now
No other short film nominated this year feels as painfully
relevant as DeKalb Elementary. While
there is not really a week film in the bunch for this category, the story of a
thwarted school shooting depicted in DeKalb
Elementary should propel it over the other films. Any of the other films
are equally able to win this prize, but if any were to get a boost, it would be
DeKalb Elementary.
Prediction: DeKalb Elementary
Animated Feature
Favorite: Coco
Potential Spoiler: N/A
Best Animated Feature in 2018 is a reminder as to why this
category maybe shouldn’t exist. Animation in 2017 was a fairly dour affair,
with few films emerging as truly remarkable or award worthy (Boss Baby is nominated after all). But
while films like The Breadwinner or
even Loving Vincent are good little
animated films, they can’t even come close to Coco. In one of the easiest categories to call all night, Coco runs away with another Oscar for
Pixar.
Prediction: Coco
Documentary
Feature
Favorite: Faces Places
Potential Spoiler: Jane Icarus
Faces Places isn’t
like the typical documentary that people think of when they hear the word.
Rather it’s just a mish mash of stories, highlighting everyday lives of people
that Agnès Varda and JR come across. And while it is truly delightful, it was
never the film I expected to be the favorite once nominations came out. That
film was Jane, a film about Jane
Goodall which was surprisingly left out when nominations were released, leaving
the door wide open for Faces Places
to win. Icarus, a look at the effects
of doping and the Russian scandal surrounding it, may pose a small threat, but
seeing Agnès Varda win an Oscar at 89 years old is just too great of an
opportunity to pass up.
Prediction: Faces Places
Foreign Language
Film
Favorite: A Fantastic Woman
Potential Spoiler:
The Square
Foreign Language Film is another category that’s tough to
call. Not because of the excellence of every film, but because the Academy
makes some wacky moves here. Many years, films that have been awarded from
multiple other voting bodies haven’t even made the shortlist much less made the
nomination list. Just this year alone, Golden Globe Winner In the Fade and adored BPM
didn’t get into the final five. That’s not to say the nominated films are
undeserving, far from it in fact, but a surprise is not out of the question. If
we operate under the assumption that it’s a two-horse race between A Fantastic Woman, a tender film with
timely subject matter from Chile, or The
Square, a far weirder film from Sweden, I’d say A Fantastic Woman takes it. But expect the unexpected in Foreign
Language should never be forgotten.
Prediction: A Fantastic Woman
And that’s it for the shorts and features, the categories a
majority of people struggle to see every year let alone predict correctly. Part
Three starts to get to a few above the line categories before the big hitters
hit on Thursday.
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