Halfway through the categories and most of the smaller ones
are finished. With the heavy hitters waiting in the wings for tomorrow, the
bigger but not quite the biggest awards come now. With a few categories that
could be heavy indicators of what is to come with THE big one, here is Part
Three of Oscar Predictions.
Film Editing
Favorite: Dunkirk
Potential Spoiler: Baby Driver
At the front of the pack in Best Film Editing are two films
that are heavily reliant on editing. Dunkirk
features layered storytelling that jumps back and forth between different
stories with different paces that without expert editing would fall apart.
While Baby Driver is an Edgar Wright,
and anyone who knows Edgar Wright knows how incredibly well edited his films are
every time out. While both are equally deserving, and I’m confident the winner
will be one of these two films, I have to give the final push to Dunkirk for its ability to maintain its
unique structure and unbearable tension throughout, a feat that’s impossible
without fantastic editing from Lee Smith.
Prediction: Dunkirk
Cinematography
Favorite: Blade Runner 2049
Potential Spoiler: Dunkirk
There is some tremendous talent in this category. From
14-time Academy Award nominee (and still winless) Roger Deakins, who once again
turns in impressive, awe-inspiring work on Blade
Runner 2049, to the first female cinematographer ever nominated in Rachel
Morrison, who delivered some of the best shots of the year in Mudbound. Even the flowy, dreamlike work
from Dan Lausten on The Shape of Water
or the brilliant cinematography of Hoyte van Hoytema on Dunkirk have enough to take home the trophy. But with any luck, one
of the longest losing streaks at the Academy Awards will finally end on March 4th.
Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
Original Song
Favorite: “Remember
Me” – Coco
Potential Spoiler: “This
Is Me” – The Greatest Showman
Another year, another Pasek & Paul vs Disney showdown.
The writing duo of Benj Pasek and Justin Paul have been on a sort of hot
streak, winning the Oscar for “City of Stars” from La La Land last year and couple of Tony’s not long after for Dear Evan Hansen, but Disney may just
put an end to that come Sunday. While the duo certainly have a good shot at
repeating with “This Is Me”, Disney and Pixar brought their own past winners to
bat this time. And Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez are not just any old
past Oscar winner, no this is the pair that brought “Let It Go” from Frozen into the world. I think that
pretty much speaks for itself.
Prediction: “Remember
Me” – Coco
Original Score
Favorite: The Shape of Water
Potential Spoiler: Phantom Thread
The three leading contenders here are so wildly different
but equally amazing in their own way. First time nominee Johnny Greenwood is
able to elevate the eloquence of Phantom
Thread with a unique score that’s hauntingly beautiful. Hans Zimmer, a
seemingly guaranteed nominee lately, goes experimental with his score for Dunkirk and implements it seamlessly
alongside the wartime echoes to ramp up the tension to incredible heights. But
neither can match the sheer beauty of Alexandre Desplat’s score for The Shape of Water. With two mute
characters at the forefront, the film relies so heavily on this magical music
to set the mood and Deplat’s work is just wonderful from start to finish.
Prediction: The Shape of Water
Adapted Screenplay
Favorite: Call Me by Your Name
Potential Spoiler: Mudbound
Best Adapted Screenplay may be the category that’s been a
lock for the longest amount of time. And while the Call Me By Your Name screenplay from James Ivory is fantastic, most
of its status as a lock come from a surprising lack of big competition. Adapted
screenplays from films like Mudbound and
Molly’s Game are worthy nominees,
sure, but they’re hardly strong enough to challenge Call Me By Your Name and James Ivory for what is likely the films
only award of the night.
Prediction: Call Me By Your Name
Original
Screenplay
Favorite: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Potential Spoiler: Get Out
This is one of those races that is too close to call with a
ton of confidence. Every screenplay nominated here is exceptional, but really
only two have emerged with chances to bring home a win. Without question the
screenplay from Martin McDonagh for Three
Billboards is tremendous, but a growing backlash could harm its chances. On
the other side, Get Out is a far more
honest critique of racism, expertly wrapped into a horror film by Jordan Peele.
But while Three Billboards and its
problematic themes could hurt its chances, Get
Out could face an uphill climb as a genre film. Either way, the winner of
this category gets one step closer to the big prize, while the loser could see
its hopes dashed completely.
Prediction: Get Out
And that’s it. The big six awards will follow tomorrow with
races that are seemingly locked, but could there be potential for upsets. I
mean it is almost March after all.
After 18 award predictions, here is the current tally:
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