Tonight is the big night, and so come the final predictions
for the biggest awards in Hollywood. The uncertainty follows from the first
half, as the question marks become bigger as to who really will take the statue
home.
Here are the rest of the predictions for Oscar night:
Animated Feature
Thankfully there are no lackluster films nominated this year
as there was last year, but there are still films that should win over the
others. There was a time that it would’ve been easy to pull for Ralph
Breaks the Internet, a makeup for overlooking the first film in favor
of far inferior film in 2012. And then Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
was given to the world, and nothing else in the Animated realm mattered. The
film perfectly captures the tone of its characters and the feeling of a comic
book, and it should, in theory, run away with this award.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti,
Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
Possible Spoiler:
Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird, John
Walker & Nicole Paradis Grindle
Documentary Feature
Once again, the Documentary branch snubs the yearlong
favorite to win it all entirely. This year that happened to be Won’t
You Be My Neighbor?, the heart-warming and touching look at Mister
Rogers. Of course, without this awards juggernaut in play, the race opens up
completely. The only question that remains is if the Academy will go for the
technical prowess displayed in Free Solo, or will they look at the
more emotional and subdued Minding the Gap? From a pure
filmmaking standpoint, Free Solo seems undeniable, but it’s
hardly a safe bet.
Prediction: Free Solo – Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi,
Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes & Shannon Dill
Possible Spoiler: Minding the Gap – Bing Liu & Diane
Quon
Foreign Language Film
A category that should absolutely be a lock on paper, Best
Foreign Language Film could only get tricky if the voters seek to award a film
not named Roma just so it can be recognized in some way. If that’s the
case, and you’re looking for that big upset to help your Oscar ballot, look for
Cold
War to be the film instead. However, Roma seems to have too
much support across the board to lose here.
Prediction: Roma (Mexico) – Alfonso Cuarón
Possible Spoiler: Cold War (Poland) – Paweł Pawlikowski
Cinematography
First of all, let’s all be thankful that the Academy
reversed their decision to not air this award in the live telecast. Second of
all, let’s embrace a category full of potentially worthy winners. And yet, the
statue will likely only go to two possible winners, Łukasz Žal (Cold
War) or Alfonso Cuarón (Roma). Cuarón is a heavy favorite
here, however, a director has never won an Oscar when serving as his own DP, an
obstacle that could certainly get in the way. But again, it’s hard to see a
world where the support Roma has from the majority of the
branches suddenly vanishes.
Prediction: Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
Possible Spoiler: Cold War – Łukasz Žal
Adapted Screenplay
The toughest and tightest race of the twenty-four by a wide
margin, Best Adapted Screenplay could feasibly go to any of the five nominees
and no one would bat an eye. Throughout the entirety of awards season, the
frontrunner role has been filled by numerous films, with the exception of The
Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and no film has really solidified its
position in its time in the lead. Logically, it would seem the Academy would
want to provide a competeitive Oscar to Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman, but a
late push from Can You Ever Forgive Me? puts this in question as well. This is
a toss-up category if there ever was one.
Prediction: BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David
Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Possible Spoiler: Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener
& Jeff Whitty
Original Screenplay
There are three potential scenarios for Best Original
Screenplay, each with a different message for the remainder of the awards.
First, it could go to The Favourite, a stellar screenplay
and arguably the best in the bunch, and signal more possible above the line
wins coming. Second, it could go to Green Book, a poor screenplay
written by the son of its subject matter, and signal a potentially horrid Best
Picture result. And finally, it could be a third film in Roma, a subtle screenplay
but a respectable one, that would almost guarantee it takes home the big prize
at the end of the night.
Prediction: The Favourite – Deborah Davis & Tony
McNamara
Possible Spoiler: Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian
Currie & Peter Farrelly
Supporting Actress
Another tremendously strong with numerous potential outcomes
each with plenty of logical thinking to back it up. The perceived frontrunner
all season has been Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), but
misses at some major precursors puts her status in question. The ladies of The
Favourite are both well liked and extremely deserving, but the vote
splitting that will likely happen creates a big hurdle. And all of these
question marks could leave a road for Roma and Marina de Tavira to sneak
in for another win. With so much uncertainty at the Oscars this year, it feels
as though there will be at least one major shock in the big categories, and
this is where it could fall.
Prediction: Rachel
Weisz, The Favourite
Possible Spoiler: Regina
King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor
On paper, this is an award destined for Mahershala Ali (Green
Book). The actor has swept all of the major precursors and seems like
one of the easiest picks of the night, with the only potential roadblock being
his first win only a few years ago. A recent push from Richard E. Grant (Can
You Ever Forgive Me?) makes the race marginally more interesting, but
it seems Ali has this in the bag.
Prediction: Mahershala
Ali, Green Book
Possible Spoiler: Richard
E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Actress
The strongest top to bottom category of the year, Best
Actress features five women that would all make sense as winners. The lead
narrative is giving the career award to Glenn Close (The Wife) that she has
deserved for years. Despite the film not being great by any means, Close’s
performance elevates it beyond its lackluster story. At this point in the
season, the only feasible upset that could happen is from Olivia Colman (The
Favourite). She has done some tremendous work on the campaign trail,
when she isn’t busy shooting The Crown
season three, and delivered the one of the year’s most memorable performances.
Prediction: Glenn
Close, The Wife
Possible Spoiler: Olivia
Colman, The Favourite
Actor
And this may just be the weakest category of the night from
top to bottom. Only two of the nominees even feel worthy of a nomination, let
alone a win, and yet neither will likely be the one to take the Oscar. Instead,
it was decided that a halfhearted impersonation through bad fake teeth and a
sanitized story would be the runaway winner this year. Rami Malek (Bohemian
Rhapsody) has been completely bulletproof this season, dodging
scandals related to the criminal director and the twisting of Freddie Mercury’s
story, emerging as an unlikely frontrunner that no one can even touch. Never
did anyone believe that Christian Bale (Vice) would be everyone’s last hope.
Prediction: Rami
Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Possible Spoiler: Christian
Bale, Vice
Director
Despite many other better options being available for
nominations, we have another year of all male directors nominated. All are somewhat
deserving of a nomination, besides Adam McKay (Vice), but they’ll all
likely play second fiddle to Alfonso Cuarón (Roma). Outside of pushing
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) to a win for a stellar career, it’s hard to see
a world where the director of the year’s most artistic and well-made film won’t
win.
Prediction: Alfonso
Cuarón, Roma
Possible Spoiler: Spike
Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Picture
Here it is. The most widely open Best Picture field in
years. As it stands, only one film feels entirely out of it in terms of
winning, that film being Vice, and even that isn’t certain.
The films that feel the most like a potential Best Picture winner are Black
Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Green Book or Roma. All have a path to
the big prize in some way or another, and they all have obstacles to get there
as well. In the end though, I have to trust my gut and go with the most
respected film of the bunch Roma.
Prediction: Roma
Possible Spoiler: Green Book
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